West and east could enter spring still in drought

(by Karma Loveday)

Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia are expected to still be in drought by the start of April 2027 under the most likely rainfall scenario.

That was among the projections emerging from last week’s National Drought Group meeting, where the Environment Agency presented potential rainfall scenario data for the coming seven months.

For all areas to come out of drought – that is when rivers, groundwaters and reservoirs are back to normal levels – we need another wet winter: 120% of typical rainfall over seven months. For context, England received 130% of typical rainfall in the very wet period between September 2025 and March 2026. At present, groundwaters and reservoirs continue to recede, and no changes were made to regional drought status. However, El Niño is set to put the UK at greater risk of a wet, stormy autumn.

Under the Met Office’s most likely scenario for September to March: 

• Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire could move to recovery in October and be declared back to normal in November.  

• By December, most areas could see a fragile recovery, although four areas (Devon & Cornwall, East Anglia, Thames Valley and the West Midlands) would stay in drought.

• By February, the East and West Midlands plus Thames Valley would be in recovery.

• By the start of spring 2027, Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia would still be in drought – entering the traditionally dry months with water deficits.

Under a dry September to March scenario (80% of average rainfall, which has a one-in-four likelihood of occurrence), around half the country would still be in drought next spring: East Anglia, Lincolnshire & Northamptonshire, Thames Valley, Devon & Cornwall, Wessex (covering Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire, and south Gloucestershire), Solent & the South Downs and the West Midlands.

In its communications following the meeting, government urged water companies to stay focused and to carry on water efficiency measures until the drought is over. Water minister Emma Hardy said: “They need to maintain momentum. We expect to see leaks fixed quickly, drought plans followed without delay and continued work to reduce demand to help avoid any further restrictions.”