Warmest ever year is a near certainty by 2027

There is a 98% chance that one of next five years will be the warmest year on record for the globe according to research findings from the UK Met Office, published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The researchers calculated also that:

• the chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the previous five years is also 98%; and

• there is a two-in-three chance that the global average temperature in at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed the target limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set under the Paris Agreement.

Other key findings in the report were:

• El Niño (the warming phase of cyclic changes in Pacific trade winds currently coming into play) and human-induced climate change will likely combine to fuel global temperature increase next year; and

• Arctic heating is predicted to be more than three times higher than the global average

Among the predicted outcomes is that average rainfall for the May to September 2023-2027 will, compared to the 1991-2020 average, increase in a number of areas including northern Europe.

WMO Secretary-General, Professor Petteri Taalas, warned: “WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

Meanwhile, one of the Met Office scientists behind the report, Dr Leon Hermanson, said: “Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us further and further away from the climate we are used to.”