Researchers predict accelerating rates of drought ahead

A study led by researchers at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology has found that extreme soil moisture droughts in the UK – those lasting 90 days or more – could occur once every five or six years in the next decade and every three years by the 2060s and 2070s, “with severe implications for farming, water availability and food security.”

The researchers calculated that, over the period 2062–80, there will be an “increased risk of high or more intense soil moisture drought conditions in months between May and November, with months between June and October being at especially high risk.”

They reported: “On average across all sites, there is an increase in the frequency of future extreme soil moisture drought events of duration above 90 days. In 2062–80, such frequency increase of between 0.1 and 0.6 events a year (equivalent to at least two and up to 12 additional events in a 20-year period) is expected.” 

The study compared its projections with equivalent events during 1982–2000.