Recent rain fails to dampen drought risk for 2023

Significant water supply risks remain, despite an improving water resources situation in some parts of the country, the National Drought Group has warned.

Reservoir stocks across England are now around 68% capacity following above average rainfall in October and November. There have been improvements in the drought positions of the West Midlands (moving from ‘drought’ to "recovery’") and Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire (moving from "prolonged dry weather" to "normal"). Thames Water and Southern Water (for its Hampshire and Isle of Wight customers) have removed their temporary use bans.

However, some reservoirs remain well below the levels expected at this time of year, including Colliford Reservoir in Cornwall (24% of capacity), Roadford Reservoir in Devon (43% of capacity) and Grafham Water in Cambridgeshire (63% of capacity). In some areas, above average rainfall is still needed to fully replenish stocks and prevent drought conditions next year.

More widely, the group said if rainfall levels through winter are 80% or less of the long-term average, currently depleted reservoirs and groundwater aquifers are unlikely to fully recover. “Large parts of the country would be at risk of drought continuing into next summer – most notably in parts of the South West, South East, East Anglia, Yorkshire and East Midlands. In more severe rainfall scenarios, the projections suggest drought conditions would be widespread, covering most of the country.”

The Environment Agency told water companies to:

• increase activity to reduce leakage and undertake winter readiness actions such as contingency planning for freeze-thaw events which cause leaks;

• continue to identify all possible new sources of water and network improvements to increase water supply whilst limiting environmental risk;

• continue or enhance winter communication campaigns with customers to maintain awareness of the drought risk and promote efficient water use; and

• explore collaborative opportunities to support agriculture and other sectors to improve resilience for next summer, for instance maximising opportunities for abstraction and reviewing water needs for 2023.

Separately last week, Severn Trent Water applied for a drought permit to increase the amount of water it can pump out of its Foremark and Staunton Harold reservoirs near the River Dove. It said stocks were still currently lower than normal at Derwent Valley and Charnwood due to the very dry summer and early autumn, but that recent rainfall has helped increase flows in rivers, which means we are able to keep pumping water into our reservoirs from the River Dove.