Prospect of serious drought in 2026 rises as a dry winter forecast

(by Karma Loveday)

The Environment Agency ramped up its warning about drought in 2026 as it published its Drought prospects report last week. It said without average rainfall, most of England will experience a drought with widespread impacts felt by consumers, farmers, businesses, and nature. This followed a Met Office forecast for higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions over three months from November to January.  This would cause drought conditions to worsen, and likely lead to hosepipe bans, significant pressures on the environment and a risk to crop yields.

The new report analysed three different rainfall scenarios over winter and what each one would mean for water security across England’s regions:

• Average winter rainfall (100% of average rainfall) – most of England would be in recovery from drought or have returned to normal conditions by spring 2026. The exception is parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire, which would remain in prolonged dry weather.

• Dry winter (80% of average rainfall) – this scenario would see drought conditions increase over the winter months because of the current low river flows, groundwater, and reservoir levels. By the end of March, a large area spanning from Dorset to East Yorkshire would be in drought. The south east, south west and East Anglia would be in prolonged dry weather with only the north west experiencing normal conditions. 

• Very dry winter (60% of average rainfall) – by spring 2026, all of England would be in drought. 

Current situation recap:

• This spring was the driest in 132 years. This summer is the hottest since records began in 1884, with four heatwaves.  

• From 1 January 1st to 31 October, England saw 83% of its long-term average rainfall. 

• In August, the National Drought Group declared a “nationally significant water shortfall” in England. 

• Regional status:

  • Places currently in drought – Yorkshire, East Midlands, West Midlands and parts of Sussex and Kent.  

  • Areas in drought recovery – Cumbria and Lancashire, and Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire. 

  • Places in prolonged dry weather (the phase before drought) – North East, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, East Anglia, Thames, Wessex, Solent and South Downs.  

  • The remaining areas are normal: Hertfordshire, London, Kent, Devon and Cornwall.

• Over the summer, the Canal & River Trust shut 20% of its network due to lack of water.  

• Farmers’ harvests were impacted and there are concerns heading into winter on feed availability for livestock due to poor grass growth over the spring and summer. 

• The dry weather has impacted the breeding success of wetland birds, great crested newts, natterjack toads and the migration patterns of eels and salmon. It has also led to trees, including ancient ones, becoming severely stressed.  

• Eight million people are still under hosepipe bans across Yorkshire, Thames Valley, Sussex and Kent. 

• Total reservoir stocks across England for the period ending 4 November were 65.8%. The average for this time of year is 77.4%.