Plan infrastructure for a range of post-pandemic futures, NIC urges

Analysing a range of scenarios for how the use of public transport, broadband networks and utilities might change as a result of Covid-19, and regularly reviewing which trends seem to be playing out, is the best way of avoiding policy paralysis in the face of huge uncertainties, according to the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC).

In a new paper, Behaviour change and infrastructure beyond Covid-19, the commission argued public surveys and initial responses as the UK edges out of Covid restrictions are not a reliable guide to shifts in mass behaviour over the longer term. Instead it developed five scenarios for different plausible futures based on varied amounts of home working, movement from cities and appetite for social gatherings.

The NIC argued that given the extent of uncertainty about future behavioural change, comparing the variance between the scenarios is the most useful insight for infrastructure planning. The range of impacts is more modest in water/utilities with the difference between the highest and lowest demand scenarios at less than 10%, compared with a 25% variance in transport.

The commission also advocated taking an ‘adaptive’ approach to investment, which involves progressing schemes in phases, as costs and benefits become clearer.