Climate experts tell Government to prepare for 2°C of warming by 2050

(by Karma Loveday)

The Government should prepare for at least 2ºC of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2050. 

The Climate Change Committee gave that message to floods and water minister Emma Hardy after she requested guidance on setting objectives for climate adaptation.

At 2ºC, the Committee said heatwaves become twice as likely; drought risk doubles; peak river flows may increase by 40%; sea levels may rise by up to an additional 25cm; and the wildfire season will become longer.

It added that faster rates of warming between now and 2050 remain possible, and additional warming beyond 2050 is currently expected. Moreover, more extreme outcomes remain possible; at the high end of possibilities, reaching 4°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century cannot yet be ruled out and should be considered as part of effective adaptation planning.

• To coincide with the Environment Agency’s Flood Action Week last week, there were a number of significant flood related announcements: 

• Defra committed £10.5bn to flood defences for 900,000 properties, to be delivered under an overhauled system. Under new rules from April 2026, all prioritised flood projects valued at £3m or less will be eligible for full funding by the Government. Those of higher values will get government funding for the first £3m and 90% of costs thereafter. At least 20% of future investment will also be set aside to help protect the most deprived communities in England over the next ten years.

• The Environment Agency published an independent review conducted by Professor Peter Bonfield, setting out how the nation can accelerate practical and affordable flood resilience measures for homes, while offering a clear roadmap for boosting resilience and helping people recover faster from floods. The recommendations will be taken forward by a core leadership group, who will work closely with stakeholders to prioritise and implement key actions.

• The Environmental Audit Committee published a report focusing on how flood resilience can be strengthened in response to increasing risks. This urged the Government to set up a single national flood reporting and information service covering all types of flooding by March 2026. MPs warned that flood awareness is low, and said the overall system for managing flooding is fragmented and reactive. Surface water flooding in particular, when rain overwhelms drainage systems, is often underestimated and represents a “major gap” in national flood resilience. The Committee also recommended that the Government increase the flood budget to at least £1.5bn per year by 2030, and works with the insurance and mortgage sectors to set up a successor flood insurance scheme to Flood Re, which is due to end in 2039.